Risk assessment

In the simplest terms: “What can go wrong?” and "What are we going to do about it?"

More formally:

Risk is the likelihood of harm due to exposure to a hazard.

From the environmental perspective:

• Hazard: Objective, things we can’t control (landslide, earthquake)

• Exposure: People/property that can be harmed

• Likelihood of harm = Vulnerability. How harmful? How likely? We have some influence over these, e.g., building codes, airbags. This is the human part.

From the work/play perspective:

• Hazard
• Objective: The things we can’t control
• Subjective: Human factors such as decision-making and lack of training.
• Exposure
• The potential for severe injury; degree. E.g., height.
• 'Likelihood of harm' is wrapped up in the subjective hazards and exposure.

I prefer the environmental framework and will use it during our time together: Hazard, exposure, vulnerability

An example of adjusting the dials:

• Hazard: Bee sting, anaphylaxis
• Exposure: Sarah
• Vulnerability:
  • In the backyard? Not too bad. Ambulance, hospital, etc.
  • In the Alaska Range? Extreme.

In the simple risk assessment framework of “What can go wrong?” ...

Vulnerability offers: “What are we going to do about it?”

• Training
• Planning
• Equipment

Vulnerability is where we have the greatest influence, so let's use it.

Probability and consequence

Exposure and vulnerability give us some control over the probability and consequence of something going wrong.

Environmental

• Probability: We have no control.
• Consequence: We have some control (building codes, life vests).

Human

• Probability: We have some control (go, don't go).
• Consequence: We have some control (training, communication).

Assessment matrices

An assessment matrix can help us recognize unacceptable risks and leverage control to mitigate them.

A simple (qualitative) matrix: Professional climber Will Gadd uses these degrees of consequence with his kids:

1. Bumps and bruises
2. Hospital
3. Death

A quantitative matrix:

Pros:

• Forces us to evaluate the probability and consequence of a hazard.
• Quantification can streamline decision-making.
• Decisions are easy in the green and red corners.

Cons:

• Quantifying likelihood and consequence is ripe for bias! (We'll talk about bias soon.)
• Number values lose meaning: 'Moderate' in the upper left and lower right are very different!

Maybe we are better off with something in between?

Action items

It is useful to match the assessment matrix with action items. Here is an example from Stanford's Laboratory Risk Assessment Tool.

Objective hazards: Environmental

We can’t control environmental hazards, but we can anticipate them with planning and preparation tools:

• Digital mapping
• Satellite imagery
• Weather and sensor resources

Subjective hazards: Human

What goes wrong? We make bad decisions. Or … good decisions, but based on limited or bad data.

Examples of subjective hazards:

• Thinking errors
• Inadequate training and experience
• Preparedness and ability to respond
• Decisions
• Group morale
• Physical conditioning and overexertion
• Time management
• Complacency
• Campsite selection
• River crossing location

Let's clump these into three categories:

• Decision-making
• Group management
• Communication

Goals

All three of these subjective hazard categories are highly dependent on our goals.

We get in trouble when our goals exceed our capabilities AND we are in an environment where consequences are high.

In addition to:

• "What can go wrong?"
• "What are we going to do about it?"

We need to ask:

• "Is it worth it?"

Risk tolerance

Our willingness to expose ourselves to a hazard is a function of risk tolerance: the willingness to accept that something might go wrong. Risk tolerance changes throughout our lives.

Decision-making

We make decisions based on our experience, but experience isn't a reliable educator.

• We learn more when we are wrong; we need feedback. E.g., A/B quiz example.
• Wicked learning environments
• Complexity and biases

Heuristic traps

Heuristics are mental shortcuts. Heuristic traps are shortcuts that increase our exposure and vulnerability.

Here's how avalanche educators try to increase awareness of heuristic traps:

Also: Confirmation bias, e.g., social media. Here's an exhaustive list.

Incidents are rarely due to one bad decision

A better model is that the holes in our defenses happen to align perfectly wrong: A rush to get out the door, wrong shoes, rainstorm, sunset.

Safety drift

We tend to drift within the safety space.

• "Culture of safety" efforts drift toward the baseline.
• Complacency drifts toward incidents.
• Major incidents cause a rapid/rigid swing back to the baseline.
• Gradual changes in norms or routines are particularly troublesome.

Group management

Working with others involves managing different risk assessments and tolerances.

We can foster a healthy group dynamic by trying to reduce stress and increase communication. 

Stress

Stress limits our performance, our awareness of safety drift, and our ability to react when things go wrong.

Comfort zones

• Anticipate your own stress level and that of the participants.
• You might be in your comfort zone but others/students are not.
• +1 / 0 / -1 self-assessment. Is the team in the positive?

Working with a small comfort zone:

• Reduce exposure to stressors/activators
• Reinforce the support system
  • Orient to the available resources
  • Buddy-up
• Titration
• Pendulation

The stress continuum

"A color-coded 'How are you doing?' scale."

• Evaluate self/team condition
• Recognize your ability to react if something goes wrong

Communication

Ultimately, the thing that goes wrong is communication.

Power and leadership

Complex tasks require specialization.

Success requires open communication between specialists—teamwork!

• Set the tone early

• Role model best behavior

• Establish the power structure: We are a team.

• Empower: Anyone can say stop.

• Earn trust: Learn names, show that you care.

• Calling in vs. calling out

Listening

• Foster an environment where questions are welcome
• Be a good listener and check for understanding
• Read body language, silence. If in doubt, ask 1-on-1 out of earshot of others.

Asking

• Ask generic questions of the group.
• E.g., “What could go wrong here?” Instead of, "Are you feeling okay with this?" 

Debriefing

The learning process is incomplete without reflection and assessment.

• Reflect and take notes
• Involve mentors and experts.

Leadership

A few final thoughts ...

• Ideally, leaders can work on autopilot to then focus on others’ conditions, environmental hazards, etc.
• Anticipate foreseeable events and what-ifs.
• Have a Plan B.
• Plan for emergencies.
• Have the technical skills to respond (medical training, etc.).